iPhone 15 will sell less than iPhone 14, but it could still be a success. One of the leitmotifs of the days preceding the launch of iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro are the forecasts on their reception by the public. In particular, it was the most reliable Apple market observer, Mark Gurman, who spoke on the subject with an article in which he fears a non-positive scenario in this regard.
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Previously, analyst Jeff Pu had also proposed generally non-optimistic scenarios for Apple during 2023, further reiterated with specific reference to the iPhone at the beginning of August; now extending the list of those who suggest downward sales is the Japanese bank Mizhuo which foresees a cut in the production of the iPhone 15.
Fewer iPhone 15s than expected
Mizhuo estimates a reduction in iPhone production by 227 million to 217 million. iPhone 15 overall should engage the assembly lines for 73 million units and not 84 million as previously thought. The Japanese institute is even more pessimistic than Pu who had elaborated a forecast for 77 million units against the 83 million previously estimated.
If the Japanese bank were right and Apple sold 217 million iPhones we would be facing an absolutely unprecedented phenomenon: a drop in sales for two consecutive years. In 2022 Apple had lost almost 8 million units compared to 2021. Previously the reduction in sales had occurred when (as in 2019) Apple had introduced not particularly successful devices but the following year there had been a prompt recovery.
Prices and components, here are the problems
The reasons given by the analysts refer primarily to the problems that Apple could encounter in recovering the necessary components for the new iPhone 15 and iPhone 1 Pro: periscopic lenses and displays would be available in insufficient quantities. But everyone is also talking about a general reduction in interest in smartphones with fewer customers willing to update their devices and we’re not just talking about Apple ones.
Gurman himself had underlined these basic problems for the smartphone market which, by affecting the globality of manufacturers, will end up closely affecting the iPhone as well. Counterpoint Research recently predicted that the smartphone market could drop by 6% in 2023 compared to 2022, already a not particularly brilliant year.
Another element of uncertainty derives from the iPhone price lists, expected (at least in the USA) to increase between 10 and 15%. Raising prices in a scenario where innovation is slowing down is obviously a further problem that adds to the others.
So Apple could defeat the pessimists
In reality, as it is possible to read in the same note from Counterpoint Research that we link to above, positive developments for Apple can also be glimpsed. If Apple, says the analyst firm, were able to capitalize on the large installed base and convince it to upgrade to the iPhone 15, it has the possibility of becoming the world’s leading smartphone maker for the first time in its history.
