2023 the fall of smartphones, Android declines, iPhone grows. The worst decline in global smartphone shipments in 10 years is expected for 2023, but while Android will follow the market trend, iPhone is expected to grow slightly.
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Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are forecast to drop 4.7% from last year, with a total of 1.15 billion units, the lowest volume of the decade, according to data reported in the Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker of International Data Corporation – IDC.
This is a downward revision compared to IDC’s previous forecast which estimated the overall decline at -3.2%, once again highlighting a general weakening of the economic outlook and persistent inflation, elements which have slowed down consumer demand for new smartphones and extended the usual update cycles.
Despite the downward forecast for 2023, IDC expects a market recovery for 2024, with growth of 4.5% year over year, and an overall annual growth of 1.7% taking into account the average shipments of the last five years.
From an operating systems perspective, IDC expects an increase in iPhone shipments, with a record market share of 19.9%, with iPhone continuing to demonstrate greater resilience to macroeconomic challenges than Android, according to IDC, predicting this year for devices with the latter system a drop of 6%. However, a slight growth of 1.1% is expected for the iPhone.
A general decline in shipments is expected across all regions. China, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) and Latin America are the geographical regions where many players in the Android world are concentrated, and those in which a greater decline is expected, indicated respectively as a decline of 3.6%, 4.4% and 6.2 %. In the United States and Europe, declines of 3.8% and 6.1% are expected.
At a time when the entire market seems to be in difficulty, Apple seems to be going in the opposite direction, reports Ryan Reith, vice president of IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers group. Trade-ins and the expansion of “buy now, pay later” programs appear to be helping the premium segment of the market, particularly in more developed markets.
In 2022, there was a 1.7% decline in the $800 and above segment, while the rest of the market (global phones) saw a double-digit decline. As a result, the used smartphone market has grown by double digits, a sector in which specialized sellers have stocks and phones in good condition.
